C8 GBI Good Governance February 2022 Monthly Report – Cirdan Capital

The ‘Good Governance’ certificate was steadily recovering from January’s sell-off but was hit once again as energy prices spiked following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The certificate ended down 0.6% on the month.

We noted last month, that, both in and out of sample, there is only one equivalent drawdown, in Dec 2010 – Jan 2011, when there was a drop of 12.2%. We also noted that these losses proved only temporary and were fully recovered within 4 months. However, these remain difficult times for an ESG L/S strategy given the risks of the world’s 2nd largest gas and 3rd largest oil producer being excluded from the world energy market.

Importantly however, these ESG-related risks are balanced by many examples since 2007, where the ‘Good Governance’ portfolio of US stocks significantly outperforms during periods of financial market stress, as investment flows seek the safe haven of well-governed stocks. Whilst any long-term premia can have demanding periods, we remain convinced that ‘Good Governance’ will continue to perform over time.

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Signals vs Omens – Sept 6

BY JON WEBB
Call me superstitious, but some irrational part of me can’t help but think the disappointment surrounding the Nvidia results had wider significance. Like  Mary Poppins leaving when the wind changes, sometimes it’s something mundane which, with the benefit of hindsight, signals a shift in sentiment. It’s not that Nvidia never disappoints, but it has come to feel like that recently. And since the Nvidia results, stocks do seem to have lost their mojo, in marked contrast to bonds. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Relatively Speaking

BY JON WEBB
In the second half of last year, as we continued to ponder the ever-impressive strength of the US consumer, we highlighted research on the subject of “excess” saving (which still seems a misnomer), noting JPM’s analysis that saw the consumer that had exhausted the various stimmy payments. Soon after, we discussed research from the San Francisco Fed that argued “a larger fraction of aggregate savings remains in the economy than previously expected”, thanks in part to “a comprehensive data revision”. The piece concluded that those savings would last until “the first half of 2024”. Well, while tomorrow may never truly arrive if free beer is involved (a medical concept?!), the future is now, and the SF Fed has bad news: “Pandemic Savings Are Gone”. As ever with economic research, this comes with a list of caveats, the jist of which are captured in the note accompanying the Fed’s chart below, i.e. savings are gone, relatively speaking. Read more →

C8 Weekly Bulletin: Can US Earnings Rebound as Forecast

BY SCOTT DOUGLASS
We follow-up from last week’s piece by IVI Capital on US debt dynamics, with an… Read more →
Back to all posts →