MI2 Partners

Mar 06, 2025

“Whatever it takes must now also apply to our defense”

In our note from April of 2020, which now feels like half a lifetime ago rather than less than 5 years (it’s not the years but the miles?), we wrote about how COVID and the related crises had “made it clear that in many ways, reality is more like Calvinball” than an orderly system: one where “the rules of the game around the world appear to be in flux”. This week has provided yet more evidence, if any more was needed, for this view. We all knew that “All is fair in love and war” but the Bund market can testify to how jarring it is when we are confronted with a stark case of “needs must when the devil drives, and the consequences be damned”.

Substack Link:  https://open.substack.com/pub/mi2partners/p/thoughts-from-the-divide-rules-and?r=1tabqm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Other posts

Thoughts From the Divide:  The First Cut

BY JON WEBB
In love, the first cut may be the deepest (as per Rod Stewart, Sheryl Crow, and others). But for the Fed’s Waller, the first cut is to be done “methodically and carefully”. Tacky musical references aside, the Fed Governor explained in his speech earlier this week that “the data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024”. With inflation seemingly on the right path for reaching the FOMC’s “price-stability goal”, Waller was yet another confirmation of the adjustment cut thesis, explaining in his conclusion, “The healthy state of the economy provides the flexibility to lower the (nominal) policy rate to keep the real policy rate at an appropriate level of tightness.” Read more →

With Tariffs Of The Table, Focus Returns to Earnings

BY TEMATICA
Market Wrap US Futures and overseas markets began the day playing out as everyone… Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: How To Know

BY JON WEBB
Ah! The start of the new year. The new calendar offers so much possibility! A moment of change that seems to come just as we have spent time following traditions and celebrating holidays that have managed to survive. It’s a comforting reminder that while “progress” is relentless, amid the seasonal ebb and flow there are still some things we can rely on. A missed Fed inflation and rates projection, a TFTD that is once again arriving after the end of the year (mea culpa encore), and… a return to the wisdom of Whitney Houston? Read more →
Back to all posts →