MI2 Partners

Mar 06, 2025

“Whatever it takes must now also apply to our defense”

In our note from April of 2020, which now feels like half a lifetime ago rather than less than 5 years (it’s not the years but the miles?), we wrote about how COVID and the related crises had “made it clear that in many ways, reality is more like Calvinball” than an orderly system: one where “the rules of the game around the world appear to be in flux”. This week has provided yet more evidence, if any more was needed, for this view. We all knew that “All is fair in love and war” but the Bund market can testify to how jarring it is when we are confronted with a stark case of “needs must when the devil drives, and the consequences be damned”.

Substack Link:  https://open.substack.com/pub/mi2partners/p/thoughts-from-the-divide-rules-and?r=1tabqm&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: An Inevitable Recession? –Surprise! (An Interview)

BY JON WEBB
In lieu of this week’s Thoughts From The Divide newsletter, we’re thrilled to share Julian Brigden’s recent chat with Blockworks’ Felix Jauvin. So, what’s on the docket? Well, we dive headfirst into the market’s somewhat naive hope that central banks will start slashing rates like they're on a budget cut spree. Spoiler alert: historical trends suggest that rate adjustments are rarely as swift or predictable as we'd all like. Those tightening cycles? They’re like that unpredictable friend who shows up late and drunk—potentially disastrous. Next up, we take a magnifying glass to those overly rosy 2025 pricing forecasts. Turns out, the market's optimism might be a tad misplaced. We break down the difference between disinflation that’s deliberately crafted and the kind that just happens because, well, life. Either way, it’s a wild ride with plenty of risks to consider. Read more →

What Will Powell Say on Inflation and Tariffs Today?

BY TEMATICA
👀January CPI and PPI as well as reciprocal Trump tariffs on the horizon Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy June 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →
Back to all posts →