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NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy December 2022 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Bumps and Jumps

BY JON WEBB
At the risk of sounding like we’re going soft on Jerry and his pirate crew of crack forecasters, one might almost feel bad for the folks at the Eccles building. Despite their manifest belief that current real rates are restrictive, the economic “party goers” seem to be finding it very easy to keep going with the available supplies of punch. The takeaway seems to be that it’s hard to stop a party when fiscal policy keeps adding to the punchbowl. Grannie Yellen seems to love a booze up, followed by a Chinese banquet, and if we were honest, we might admit that’s pretty much been our MO for the last 15 years Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Moon

BY JON WEBB
If the Fed can “only know” the neutral rate (and hence whether policy is restrictive) “by its works”… there may be reason to think that the music is still playing. Whether it’s the price surges of misspelled celebrity memecoins ICOs such as “Joram Poowel” (a coin based on Elizabeth Warren was the “Top gainer” at the time of writing), the return of the Manufacturing PMI to positive territory “for the first time in 17 months”, or the simple good old fashioned break out of gold to all-time highs (sympathy to all mining stock bros, miners have failed to attract the same level of enthusiasm), the “restrictive” territory being bandied about seems less of a place of economic pain, and more one of milk and honey. Read more →
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