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C8 Currency Compass – USD Correction II – February 2025

BY JON WEBB
Our FX systems started the year with ashort USD bias (against the general consensus for a stronger USD). For the first three weeks this bias worked well as fears of blanket US tariffs did not materialize, however, in the final week of January, tariffs were announced on Mexico, Canada and China leading to some renewed USD strength. Nevertheless, so far, the measures that have been taken (with some already suspended for now) have not been as bad as feared. Looking forward to this month, we note the signals are more mixed for the USD though our hedge ratios remain negative USD for the largest currencies: EUR, GBP and JPY. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

BY JON WEBB
Now that the “giant global margin call” appears to have run its course, global equity markets were free to celebrate successfully navigating the potential banana skin that was US inflation data (both CPI and PPI). Inflation is tamed (at least till next month) with only the irritating exception of the shelter components (again!) and those pesky insurance premiums. Turns out that inflation has a long tail: higher auto prices beget higher insurance premiums, and that’s without considering the impact of recent hail storms. That said perhaps we should count our blessings. Both headline CPI and PPI beat (i.e., were lower than) the consensus by 0.1%, which led some economists to point to a core PCE deflator figure below the Fed’s 2% target: good enough for stocks to start celebrating a September rate cut. Read more →

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Know when to Fold‘Em

BY JON WEBB
President Trump told us that the U.S. would get "a total of 55% tariffs" with China's tariffs set at 10%, adding that "Full magnets and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to”. A Chinese spokesman was more reserved. Lutnick referred to the agreement as a "handshake for a framework" which didn’t seem entirely consistent with Trump’s assessment. Usually, in these matters the best way of telling what happened is to look at the US-listed Rare Earth miners – MP Materials fell 8% yesterday, but was up 14% today, which might suggests that the market the market remains skeptical about China resuming rare earth supplies. Read more →
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