The Dynamic Allocation Strategy equity weighting fell below benchmark allocation.

Two-thirds of the six top-level indicators in the model favor fixed income over equities.

U.S. Large-Caps, non-U.S. Developed, U.S. Investment Grade, U.S. High Yield, and U.S. Value received the highest allocations. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202304021

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USDJPY: Update and Strategy Observation

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If the Fed can “only know” the neutral rate (and hence whether policy is restrictive) “by its works”… there may be reason to think that the music is still playing. Whether it’s the price surges of misspelled celebrity memecoins ICOs such as “Joram Poowel” (a coin based on Elizabeth Warren was the “Top gainer” at the time of writing), the return of the Manufacturing PMI to positive territory “for the first time in 17 months”, or the simple good old fashioned break out of gold to all-time highs (sympathy to all mining stock bros, miners have failed to attract the same level of enthusiasm), the “restrictive” territory being bandied about seems less of a place of economic pain, and more one of milk and honey. Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide:  The First Cut

BY JON WEBB
In love, the first cut may be the deepest (as per Rod Stewart, Sheryl Crow, and others). But for the Fed’s Waller, the first cut is to be done “methodically and carefully”. Tacky musical references aside, the Fed Governor explained in his speech earlier this week that “the data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024”. With inflation seemingly on the right path for reaching the FOMC’s “price-stability goal”, Waller was yet another confirmation of the adjustment cut thesis, explaining in his conclusion, “The healthy state of the economy provides the flexibility to lower the (nominal) policy rate to keep the real policy rate at an appropriate level of tightness.” Read more →
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