The equity allocation continues to be above benchmark weighting.

Two-thirds of the indicators, which weigh the relative attractiveness of stocks and bonds, favor stocks.

U.S. Large Caps, U.S. Growth, and U.S. Small Caps received the highest allocations. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202502031

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Adjustments

BY JON WEBB
Last week’s excitement in bond markets came courtesy of Governor Waller offering a mechanical rationale for rate cuts. Simply, “If inflation goes down, you would lower the policy rate.” This came, of course, in the context of warnings about financial conditions and other caveats, but as is so often the case, what the markets heard was “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?”. That doesn’t mean that we disagree with the market’s read of where the Fed’s head is. Fed Governors don’t make too many boo-boos with their messaging, and when they do, it’s often an error of timing rather than content. The market has now priced cuts down to “around 4% by the end of 2024” and while that seems perhaps overdoing the enthusiasm a tad, we suspect that the market has gotten the gist about right.  Read more →

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Never Rains But It Pours

BY JON WEBB
t’s been a challenging week for President Trump. The problems started when the Justice Department released a memo as part of their “commitment to transparency” that explained there was no evidence of an “Epstein client list” or that his death was suspicious. Trump offered a spirited defence of AG Pam Bondi, but this did little to placate the MAGA base, who appeared understandably sceptical. Reports that China believes it has the whip hand in trade negotiations because of its rare earth leverage can’t have improved the President’s mood. Worse still, there does seem to be substance to those reports. One poker tell was the recently announced deal between MP Materials and Apple, which will invest $500mn in rare earth magnets and a recycling facility (of course). That news followed last week’s announcement of a $400mn investment in MP by the Pentagon, no less! Trump then managed to go 0 for 3 when he ostensibly floated a trial balloon on firing Powell. The market reaction prompted a swift walk-back. Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy January 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →
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