Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202101061

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C8 Currency Compass – “Don’t be a PANICAN” Pres Trump – April 2025

BY JON WEBB
After the tariff announcement, there was an initial USD drop on the risk that the US finds itself isolated, then a flight to the USD on risk aversion.  Interestingly, our FX models, which have been bearish on the USD since the start of January, are broadly positive USD for April.  In particular, reversing to short positions in AUD and NZD, which as commodity producers are most impacted by increasing recession risks. In the medium term, the USD remains vulnerable, with a weaker USD seemingly a policy goal for the Administration, but, as the shock of the tariff announcements work through the markets, the USD can have a period of strength first. Read more →

With Tariffs Of The Table, Focus Returns to Earnings

BY TEMATICA
Market Wrap US Futures and overseas markets began the day playing out as everyone… Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Right Time to Strike

BY JON WEBB
The saying is that one should wait until you see the whites of the enemy’s eyes before firing, but are there times when it’s worth waiting until you feel their breath? Case in point, the “whites” (losses) are certainly visible now in real estate debt, as we’ve highlighted in these pages, with the obvious consequences for owners of real estate debt. The latest data from the FDIC served to further highlight the obvious, warning that there are “63 ‘problem banks’ and $517 billion in unrealized losses” courtesy of higher rates hurting bank holdings of fixed income. Read more →
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