The Dynamic Allocation Strategy equity allocation improved to near benchmark allocation.

The six top-level indicators in the model are split between equities and fixed income.

U.S. Large-Caps, non-U.S. Developed, Cash, and U.S. Growth received the highest allocations. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202306051

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: The Right Time to Strike

BY JON WEBB
The saying is that one should wait until you see the whites of the enemy’s eyes before firing, but are there times when it’s worth waiting until you feel their breath? Case in point, the “whites” (losses) are certainly visible now in real estate debt, as we’ve highlighted in these pages, with the obvious consequences for owners of real estate debt. The latest data from the FDIC served to further highlight the obvious, warning that there are “63 ‘problem banks’ and $517 billion in unrealized losses” courtesy of higher rates hurting bank holdings of fixed income. Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide:  The First Cut

BY JON WEBB
In love, the first cut may be the deepest (as per Rod Stewart, Sheryl Crow, and others). But for the Fed’s Waller, the first cut is to be done “methodically and carefully”. Tacky musical references aside, the Fed Governor explained in his speech earlier this week that “the data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024”. With inflation seemingly on the right path for reaching the FOMC’s “price-stability goal”, Waller was yet another confirmation of the adjustment cut thesis, explaining in his conclusion, “The healthy state of the economy provides the flexibility to lower the (nominal) policy rate to keep the real policy rate at an appropriate level of tightness.” Read more →

C8 Hedge – Currency Compass – Election Special – November 2024

BY JON WEBB
The strong USD bias worked well for our FX models last month, with our dynamic hedge adding over 1% outperformance for EURUSD and GBPUSD, and over 3% for USDJPY.  We note, however, that our models have now moved to neutral for the USD against the EUR and GBP, though still look for higher USDJPY.  Reducing FX risk may well be sensible given the closeness of the US Presidential election, and doubts about the accuracy of polls. Though, as we note overleaf, late momentum now marginally favours Harris. Read more →
Back to all posts →