NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy March 2025 Update

Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update
BY BRIAN SANBORN

The equity allocation jumped to maximum weighting.

All indicators, which weigh the relative attractiveness of stocks and bonds, favor stocks.

International Developed, U.S. Large Caps, U.S. Growth, and U.S. Value received the highest allocations. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202503031

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Relatively Speaking

BY JON WEBB
In the second half of last year, as we continued to ponder the ever-impressive strength of the US consumer, we highlighted research on the subject of “excess” saving (which still seems a misnomer), noting JPM’s analysis that saw the consumer that had exhausted the various stimmy payments. Soon after, we discussed research from the San Francisco Fed that argued “a larger fraction of aggregate savings remains in the economy than previously expected”, thanks in part to “a comprehensive data revision”. The piece concluded that those savings would last until “the first half of 2024”. Well, while tomorrow may never truly arrive if free beer is involved (a medical concept?!), the future is now, and the SF Fed has bad news: “Pandemic Savings Are Gone”. As ever with economic research, this comes with a list of caveats, the jist of which are captured in the note accompanying the Fed’s chart below, i.e. savings are gone, relatively speaking. Read more →

C8 Weekly Bulletin; No, that is not AI

BY ROBERT MINIKIN
This week's issue is guest edited by one of our index providers, Axyon AI. Based in Italy, Axyon AI is a fintech company with a mission to bring AI-powered predictive value to the investment management industry. Using C8 Studio, the performance of Axyon AI's equity indices are then compared with classic market-cap weighted benchmarks. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Adjustments

BY JON WEBB
Last week’s excitement in bond markets came courtesy of Governor Waller offering a mechanical rationale for rate cuts. Simply, “If inflation goes down, you would lower the policy rate.” This came, of course, in the context of warnings about financial conditions and other caveats, but as is so often the case, what the markets heard was “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?”. That doesn’t mean that we disagree with the market’s read of where the Fed’s head is. Fed Governors don’t make too many boo-boos with their messaging, and when they do, it’s often an error of timing rather than content. The market has now priced cuts down to “around 4% by the end of 2024” and while that seems perhaps overdoing the enthusiasm a tad, we suspect that the market has gotten the gist about right.  Read more →
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