NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy February 2021 Update
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy entered the month with aggressive positioning. Both Emerging Markets and U.S. High Yield received large overweight allocations. None of EM's macro, fundamental, technical, or behavioral indicators were bearish at the start of the month. Click the link below to read more about the strategy's positioning.
Thoughts From The Divide: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold
BY JON WEBB
Now that the “giant global margin call” appears to have run its course, global equity markets were free to celebrate successfully navigating the potential banana skin that was US inflation data (both CPI and PPI). Inflation is tamed (at least till next month) with only the irritating exception of the shelter components (again!) and those pesky insurance premiums. Turns out that inflation has a long tail: higher auto prices beget higher insurance premiums, and that’s without considering the impact of recent hail storms. That said perhaps we should count our blessings. Both headline CPI and PPI beat (i.e., were lower than) the consensus by 0.1%, which led some economists to point to a core PCE deflator figure below the Fed’s 2% target: good enough for stocks to start celebrating a September rate cut.
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Thoughts From The Divide: The Right Time to Strike
BY JON WEBB
The saying is that one should wait until you see the whites of the enemy’s eyes before firing, but are there times when it’s worth waiting until you feel their breath? Case in point, the “whites” (losses) are certainly visible now in real estate debt, as we’ve highlighted in these pages, with the obvious consequences for owners of real estate debt. The latest data from the FDIC served to further highlight the obvious, warning that there are “63 ‘problem banks’ and $517 billion in unrealized losses” courtesy of higher rates hurting bank holdings of fixed income.
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NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy December 2022 Update
BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
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