The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy entered the month with elevated allocations to U.S. Treasurys, Floating Rate Notes, and International Investment Grade.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202203021

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Identifying Ducks

BY JON WEBB
While we may have missed getting out our Thoughts From The Divide year-in-review piece before the new year (mea maxima culpa), we did manage to spend some time going through our “best of” and “greatest hits” in anticipation of the changing of the calendar. As usual, there were some repeated themes and tropes, but at the highest level, what struck us was that last year seemed very much governed by the timeless question from the underrated philosopher of science, Whitney Houston: “How will I know?” (closely followed by her observation that “crack is whack”) Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – USD Correction – January 2025

BY JON WEBB
Our FX models for USD against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and  NOK, which were largely USD positive last year, reversed in January.  In particular, our reversion models are suggesting some strength in these currencies against USD in the near term.  Nevertheless, the continued outperformance of the US economy, alongside sluggish growth in Europe, suggests that any USD reversal will not be sustained. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Relatively Speaking

BY JON WEBB
In the second half of last year, as we continued to ponder the ever-impressive strength of the US consumer, we highlighted research on the subject of “excess” saving (which still seems a misnomer), noting JPM’s analysis that saw the consumer that had exhausted the various stimmy payments. Soon after, we discussed research from the San Francisco Fed that argued “a larger fraction of aggregate savings remains in the economy than previously expected”, thanks in part to “a comprehensive data revision”. The piece concluded that those savings would last until “the first half of 2024”. Well, while tomorrow may never truly arrive if free beer is involved (a medical concept?!), the future is now, and the SF Fed has bad news: “Pandemic Savings Are Gone”. As ever with economic research, this comes with a list of caveats, the jist of which are captured in the note accompanying the Fed’s chart below, i.e. savings are gone, relatively speaking. Read more →
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