Other posts

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Never Rains But It Pours

BY JON WEBB
t’s been a challenging week for President Trump. The problems started when the Justice Department released a memo as part of their “commitment to transparency” that explained there was no evidence of an “Epstein client list” or that his death was suspicious. Trump offered a spirited defence of AG Pam Bondi, but this did little to placate the MAGA base, who appeared understandably sceptical. Reports that China believes it has the whip hand in trade negotiations because of its rare earth leverage can’t have improved the President’s mood. Worse still, there does seem to be substance to those reports. One poker tell was the recently announced deal between MP Materials and Apple, which will invest $500mn in rare earth magnets and a recycling facility (of course). That news followed last week’s announcement of a $400mn investment in MP by the Pentagon, no less! Trump then managed to go 0 for 3 when he ostensibly floated a trial balloon on firing Powell. The market reaction prompted a swift walk-back. Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – “Don’t be a PANICAN” Pres Trump – April 2025

BY JON WEBB
After the tariff announcement, there was an initial USD drop on the risk that the US finds itself isolated, then a flight to the USD on risk aversion.  Interestingly, our FX models, which have been bearish on the USD since the start of January, are broadly positive USD for April.  In particular, reversing to short positions in AUD and NZD, which as commodity producers are most impacted by increasing recession risks. In the medium term, the USD remains vulnerable, with a weaker USD seemingly a policy goal for the Administration, but, as the shock of the tariff announcements work through the markets, the USD can have a period of strength first. Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy November 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →
Back to all posts →