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MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: All Time High

BY JON WEBB
All-time highs are often telling macro signals. Is it possible there might be a connection between the recent ATHs in Bitcoin and long JGBs? Some reports pointed to the US credit downgrade and Trump’s tax bill igniting fiscal worries. First of all, no macro trader ever sold a bond because of a credit downgrade and second, given S&P and Fitch had downgraded long before, it’s very hard to think of it as a surprise. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Danger to Itself

BY JON WEBB
In an op-ed for MSNBC, the “former Federal Reserve economist” warned against the Fed keeping “interest rates too high for too long”, which would cause it to “fail at its job” and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Sahm argues that the economy is “on course” for a soft landing, but “Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is not flying the plane, despite the popular narrative” (which is a far kinder metaphor than Jay being a toddler in the back seat with a toy steering wheel). Sahm suggests that “giving the Fed credit means we could learn the wrong lesson”. Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy September 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →
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