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Thoughts From The Divide: An Inevitable Recession? –Surprise! (An Interview)

BY JON WEBB
In lieu of this week’s Thoughts From The Divide newsletter, we’re thrilled to share Julian Brigden’s recent chat with Blockworks’ Felix Jauvin. So, what’s on the docket? Well, we dive headfirst into the market’s somewhat naive hope that central banks will start slashing rates like they're on a budget cut spree. Spoiler alert: historical trends suggest that rate adjustments are rarely as swift or predictable as we'd all like. Those tightening cycles? They’re like that unpredictable friend who shows up late and drunk—potentially disastrous. Next up, we take a magnifying glass to those overly rosy 2025 pricing forecasts. Turns out, the market's optimism might be a tad misplaced. We break down the difference between disinflation that’s deliberately crafted and the kind that just happens because, well, life. Either way, it’s a wild ride with plenty of risks to consider. Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide: The (Golden) Path

BY JON WEBB
While the road to hell is paved with good intentions, it appears that the “golden path” to a soft landing (which by way of reminder is a “triumph of hope over experience”, if you ask Mr. Summers) is paved with rate cuts. In an interview earlier this week, the Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee cast another vote in favor of “adjustment cuts”, saying that “You risk the golden path if you are going to be as restrictive as we are now”. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell was quick to assure the audience during his latest interview that “today I am not going to be sending any signals, one way or the other on any particular meeting” as far as rate cuts are concerned. However, that did not prevent the Chair from referring to ol’ reliable of monetary policy, “long and variable lags”, to explain why, “if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long”. Read more →

December 7: This Week’s Thematic Reads

BY TEMATICA
If you missed out on this week's signals, we've got you covered Read more →
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