Stargazer Asset Management Weekly – December 14 2020

This week we look at the current state of the markets and what to look out for as a sign that change is in the air.

BY ERIC FILL

SAM Weekly _December 14 2020

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MI2 Partners: Thoughts From The Divide: Blame Game – 11th April

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While many love rollercoasters, the consensus in the office is that we have aged out, proving that you really can’t please all of the people all of the time. And so it was with “Liberation Day”. For market folk, the glass was clearly half-empty and investors seemed conflicted about their “liberation”: from close April 2nd to close April 8th, the S&P500 fell around 12%. Scott Bessent seemed nonplussed, repeating some stats about the distribution of stock ownership among Americans (hint: 50% of people don’t have any). It turns out the Tree of Liberty doesn’t only need periodic infusions of the blood of patriots and tyrants: it also swallows 401k gains. Read more →

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Thoughts From The Divide: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

BY JON WEBB

Now that the “giant global margin call” appears to have run its course, global equity markets were free to celebrate successfully navigating the potential banana skin that was US inflation data (both CPI and PPI). Inflation is tamed (at least till next month) with only the irritating exception of the shelter components (again!) and those pesky insurance premiums. Turns out that inflation has a long tail: higher auto prices beget higher insurance premiums, and that’s without considering the impact of recent hail storms. That said perhaps we should count our blessings. Both headline CPI and PPI beat (i.e., were lower than) the consensus by 0.1%, which led some economists to point to a core PCE deflator figure below the Fed’s 2% target: good enough for stocks to start celebrating a September rate cut. Read more →

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