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Thoughts From The Divide: Natural Disasters?

BY JON WEBB
One might have expected yesterday’s CPI data to be of significance for asset prices. As it happened the figures were interesting, with the inflation data surprising to the high side: marginally, but still a miss, while core CPI actually increased for the 2nd month. Hardly proof of resurgent inflation but notable in the context of a series which has been trending lower since Sep 2022. But asset prices didn’t seem to notice the miss. Perhaps that’s because policymakers hardly noticed it either. The quote above came from the NY Fed Williams yesterday, and seems to be representative of policymakers’ focus shifting from inflation to the labor market. So perhaps markets took that cue and paid more attention to the rather striking weekly claims figure (258k). Read more →

Is The Economy Too Strong For a December Rate Cut?

BY TEMATICA
This November data will bring some answers to investors and the Fed Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Vital Few

BY JON WEBB
Winston Churchill said the above line in a speech delivered in 1940 to the House of Commons, noting in his survey of the war efforts that “The gratitude of every home in our Island… goes out to the British airmen who, undaunted by odds, unwearied in their constant challenge and mortal danger are turning the tide of the world war”. While we don’t want to focus this week on the “psalm of swords” (though we would note Denmark’s government may have broken the first rule of Fight Club in recommending its citizens stock up on water, food, medicine, and iodine tablets!), the British Bulldog’s words are particularly apt at the moment given so much of the economic landscape is dependent on “the vital few”. Read more →
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