Global growth had stabilized and in some cases was even perking up when nCoV arrived. EM had quickly become crowded as a global reflation and value trade. These positions are now under intense pressure. The US is still holding in, but for how much longer?
BY ERIC FILL
This week we look at the recent Fed meeting and how the nCoV fears are infecting the markets. SAM Weekly Feb 03 2020
Other posts
Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy July 2023 Update
BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update.
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January 13: The Week Ahead
BY TEMATICA
Yeah, more December inflation data but these two things will be the next drivers of the market.
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Thoughts From The Divide: Adjustments
BY JON WEBB
Last week’s excitement in bond markets came courtesy of Governor Waller offering a mechanical rationale for rate cuts. Simply, “If inflation goes down, you would lower the policy rate.” This came, of course, in the context of warnings about financial conditions and other caveats, but as is so often the case, what the markets heard was “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?”. That doesn’t mean that we disagree with the market’s read of where the Fed’s head is. Fed Governors don’t make too many boo-boos with their messaging, and when they do, it’s often an error of timing rather than content. The market has now priced cuts down to “around 4% by the end of 2024” and while that seems perhaps overdoing the enthusiasm a tad, we suspect that the market has gotten the gist about right.
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