This week we look at what has been driving markets and the precarious position that countries with low growth now find themselves in. Coronavirus will take a bigger bite out of global growth than is priced. Implied volatility is still cheap across asset classes.
BY ERIC FILL
SAM Weekly Update – Markets have only had eyes for growth and the avoidance of negative yields. Volatility to follow.
C8 Currency Compass – March 2025 – ‘Trade Wars are Good and Easy to Win’ Pres Trump (2018)
BY JON WEBB
Our January switch to USD weakness has worked well. The USD models are more neutral now. US tariffs have had a mixed USD reaction to the various currencies. The other country's response and context matters.
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MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Warm and Fuzzy
BY JON WEBB
Given that it’s Valentine’s Day, some of you may be feeling warm and fuzzy courtesy of a significant other. Of course, others might be married. But for those of you who are following the latest economic data, the warm fuzzy feeling may apply doubly. Consumer spending data could definitely give the impression all is right with the world if BofA’s Moynihan’s data applies across the board, “The bank’s retail customers are spending about 6% more money in the first 40 days of this year compared with the same period in 2024”. (Let’s go ahead and blame the weather/fires for the latest retail sales reading.)
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C8 Weekly Bulletin: The asset class ‘du jour’ – corporate bonds!
BY JON WEBB
The latest Financial Times opinion piece 'The Long View' flags investor interest in an exciting new asset class – not crypto, not AI-driven stocks… but newly higher-yielding corporate bonds! January data on ETF inflows certainly underlined the revived US investor appetite for fixed income with overall inflows running slightly of those into equities. Amid this constructive backdrop, USD and EUR corporate bond markets begin 2023 on a robust note.
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