This week we look at what has been driving markets and the precarious position that countries with low growth now find themselves in. Coronavirus will take a bigger bite out of global growth than is priced. Implied volatility is still cheap across asset classes.
BY ERIC FILL
SAM Weekly Update – Markets have only had eyes for growth and the avoidance of negative yields. Volatility to follow.
C8 Weekly Bulletin: Backing Value over Defensive – NDR’s Smart Sector
BY JON WEBB
January’s 6.2% advance in the US S&P500 index was far from uniform with sector performances stretching from a 15% gain in consumer discretionary to a 2% retreat in utilities. Given the importance of sectoral positioning - alongside overall market-directional bets - this week we give the opportunity to our index provider, Ned David Research, to outline the big calls from its 'Dan Hagen/ NDR Smart Sector with Catastrophic Stop' strategy.
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Digesting More Big Tech Earnings, Waiting for Friday’s January PCE Report
BY TEMATICA
Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, ServiceNow, IBM, Lam Research, Caterpillar, Mastercard, and Check Point Software (to name a few)
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MI2 Partners: Thoughts From The Divide: Blame Game – 11th April
BY JON WEBB
While many love rollercoasters, the consensus in the office is that we have aged out, proving that you really can’t please all of the people all of the time. And so it was with “Liberation Day”. For market folk, the glass was clearly half-empty and investors seemed conflicted about their “liberation”: from close April 2nd to close April 8th, the S&P500 fell around 12%. Scott Bessent seemed nonplussed, repeating some stats about the distribution of stock ownership among Americans (hint: 50% of people don’t have any). It turns out the Tree of Liberty doesn’t only need periodic infusions of the blood of patriots and tyrants: it also swallows 401k gains.
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