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Thoughts From The Divide: A Giant Global Margin Call

BY JON WEBB
It’s possible to read too much into things. Consider it a flaw in our nature. But when we are told the “Worst of market sell-off might be over but hold on tight”, we can’t help but wonder about the hedged language. After all, if Goldman sees recent price action as prompted by a “giant global margin call”, surely the sell-off is an opportunity? Apparently not, as the GS note in question suggested that the flows they have seen were not consistent with “a ton of selling”. Is this diagnostically useful, and if so, in what way? If forced to offer an opinion (and we are), we would agree with GS that volumes have certainly not been indicative of capitulation. In fact, recent volatility might be better thought of as evidence of preternaturally low levels of liquidity. That in itself begs the question of why liquidity is so poor. August doldrums, or evidence of a Potemkin market? Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy July 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: An Inevitable Recession? –Surprise! (An Interview)

BY JON WEBB
In lieu of this week’s Thoughts From The Divide newsletter, we’re thrilled to share Julian Brigden’s recent chat with Blockworks’ Felix Jauvin. So, what’s on the docket? Well, we dive headfirst into the market’s somewhat naive hope that central banks will start slashing rates like they're on a budget cut spree. Spoiler alert: historical trends suggest that rate adjustments are rarely as swift or predictable as we'd all like. Those tightening cycles? They’re like that unpredictable friend who shows up late and drunk—potentially disastrous. Next up, we take a magnifying glass to those overly rosy 2025 pricing forecasts. Turns out, the market's optimism might be a tad misplaced. We break down the difference between disinflation that’s deliberately crafted and the kind that just happens because, well, life. Either way, it’s a wild ride with plenty of risks to consider. Read more →
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