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Thoughts From The Divide: Adjustments

BY JON WEBB
Last week’s excitement in bond markets came courtesy of Governor Waller offering a mechanical rationale for rate cuts. Simply, “If inflation goes down, you would lower the policy rate.” This came, of course, in the context of warnings about financial conditions and other caveats, but as is so often the case, what the markets heard was “so you’re telling me there’s a chance?”. That doesn’t mean that we disagree with the market’s read of where the Fed’s head is. Fed Governors don’t make too many boo-boos with their messaging, and when they do, it’s often an error of timing rather than content. The market has now priced cuts down to “around 4% by the end of 2024” and while that seems perhaps overdoing the enthusiasm a tad, we suspect that the market has gotten the gist about right.  Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Julian Brigden’s Latest Interview

BY JON WEBB
In lieu of this week’s Thoughts From The Divide, we wanted to share Julian's latest interview with Ted Oakley, Managing Partner at Oxbow Advisors. In this engaging discussion, Julian addresses economic, stock market, and extreme political instability. In this engaging discussion, Julian addresses economic, stock market, and extreme political instability.  Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – March 2025 – ‘Trade Wars are Good and Easy to Win’ Pres Trump (2018)

BY JON WEBB
Our January switch to USD weakness has worked well.  The USD models are more neutral now.  US tariffs have had a mixed USD reaction to the various currencies.  The other country's response and context matters. Read more →
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