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C8 Hedge – Currency Compass – Election Special – November 2024

BY JON WEBB
The strong USD bias worked well for our FX models last month, with our dynamic hedge adding over 1% outperformance for EURUSD and GBPUSD, and over 3% for USDJPY.  We note, however, that our models have now moved to neutral for the USD against the EUR and GBP, though still look for higher USDJPY.  Reducing FX risk may well be sensible given the closeness of the US Presidential election, and doubts about the accuracy of polls. Though, as we note overleaf, late momentum now marginally favours Harris. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: An Inevitable Recession? –Surprise! (An Interview)

BY JON WEBB
In lieu of this week’s Thoughts From The Divide newsletter, we’re thrilled to share Julian Brigden’s recent chat with Blockworks’ Felix Jauvin. So, what’s on the docket? Well, we dive headfirst into the market’s somewhat naive hope that central banks will start slashing rates like they're on a budget cut spree. Spoiler alert: historical trends suggest that rate adjustments are rarely as swift or predictable as we'd all like. Those tightening cycles? They’re like that unpredictable friend who shows up late and drunk—potentially disastrous. Next up, we take a magnifying glass to those overly rosy 2025 pricing forecasts. Turns out, the market's optimism might be a tad misplaced. We break down the difference between disinflation that’s deliberately crafted and the kind that just happens because, well, life. Either way, it’s a wild ride with plenty of risks to consider. Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy September 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →
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