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Thoughts From the Divide: Pandora’s Box

BY JON WEBB
While the Whitehouse may have successfully avoided putting its foot in its mouth on inflation this year (We hope everyone stateside had a good Independence day), the topic remains at top of mind for more than just the bean counters, as policymakers and consumers alike grapple with a new version of Whitney Houston’s question, “How will I know if inflation is over?”. The last few weeks haven’t offered very clear guidance. CPI was cooler than expected, but PPI was above expectations. Both the ISM Manufacturing and Services reports saw strong price readings, but there were other signs of a retreat in demand. Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – September 2024

BY JON WEBB
We are firmly in the 50bp rate cut camp – if  the Fed is worried about employment, they need to get ahead of the curve.  This is likely to put further pressure on the USD in the near term.  USDJPY has hit its downside target (see below) so the benefit is more likely to accrue to the EUR and GBP.  We also see the BoJ on hold this week, which adds weight to this view.  However, we note our systematic models still point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness over time, so any bounce may prove a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges.  Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy June 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →
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