Stargazer Asset Management – Weekly March 23 2020

This week we look at the carnage we have seen in global markets, the unprecedented stimulus and fiscal spending and I few trades we think are interesting.
BY ERIC FILL

SAM Weekly_Mar 23 2020

Other posts

Thoughts From the Divide:  Tremendous

BY JON WEBB
While there is likely some argument within the Administration as to whether supply chain shocks are both necessary and sufficient or simply necessary (mirrored by the Fed’s own divergence in views), it’s clear that Yellen and the White House are not too concerned about the Philips Curve, nor seem to put stock in John Cochrane’s “fiscal theory of the price level”. After all, Yellen is still quoted as saying that the US is on a responsible fiscal path, despite the deficit (which is, as Mosler notes, the public’s surplus). Or perhaps they think that with some proper cajoling, the greedflation genie can be put back in the bottle (at least temporarily) as CEO’s find a renewed sense of civic virtue and community? We wouldn’t hold our breath. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: If Then

BY JON WEBB
With another “most important Fed meeting of our lifetime” squarely in the rearview, and the first round of knee-jerk market moves pass to the side mirrors, it’s worth reflecting a little on the Fed Chair Powell’s “works”. The “biggest” move was the announced tapering of treasuries QT to roughly $25b from the previous rate of $60b of run off a month, but beyond that Fed confidence was conspicuous by its absence. The Chairman stated as much, admitting that “the data have not given us that greater confidence” that inflation was moving toward the 2% goal that Powell indicated necessary (how long is a piece of string?) for cuts. Read more →

C8 Weekly Bulletin:  Trend-following in Volatile Times – the C8 Way

BY JON WEBB
The first quarter of 2023 has been notable for its skittish financial markets. First, there was optimism that this year would prove calmer than 2022, followed by renewed concern about inflation and the impact of bond holdings in the US banking system. This culminated in the forced takeover of Credit Suisse at the weekend.  Traditional trend-following strategies performed strongly in 2022, but these rapid shifts in sentiment have proved more difficult to navigate. The SocGen CTA index is down 6% year-to-date, and down nearly 10% in the past week.    Here is the good news!  The C8 Global Active Futures index avoided this sell-off and remains up on the year.  Why the difference?  C8's proprietary allocation process selects from a wide range of trend and counter-trend strategies, and is responsive to volatility levels, so adapts more readily to changing market environments. Read more →
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