Stargazer Asset Management – Weekly March 23 2020

This week we look at the carnage we have seen in global markets, the unprecedented stimulus and fiscal spending and I few trades we think are interesting.
BY ERIC FILL

SAM Weekly_Mar 23 2020

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Lack of Action

BY JON WEBB
It’s another week of heavy-hitting inflation data, with PPI coming in hotter than expected, CPI was in line with expectations on a year-on-year basis, and import prices “rose by the most in two years in April amid rising costs for energy products and other goods”. Under the hood, both CPI and import prices showed additional signs of running hot, with the latter featuring an upwardly revised 0.6% month-on-month change in March, and the CPI data, including hot readings in some of the niches and metrics followed by Powell et al., such as the  4.0% annualized reading in six-month Core CPI and a sobering 6.0% annualized reading in six-month Core Services. Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – October 2024

BY JON WEBB
A strong start from Currency Compass last month, where we called for a 50bp Fed rate cut camp but noting our currency models point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness, so any bounce is a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges.  Indeed it was, with EURUSD hitting 1.12 and GBPUSD 1.34 before falling back.  Stronger US data, in particular the employment report, helped cement this view, the chart below illustrates  how recent US data has pushed up the Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow forecast from 2% to above 3%. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Finding Reasons

BY JON WEBB
The latest flurry of Fed speak has been a broad recanting of the previously guaranteed, 100% for sure, cuts this year, with members saying, “I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut rates”, “I’m not in a mad dash hurry to get there[, to lower rates]”, and “at some point, … we will start to normalize policy back to a less restrictive stance [ed. Ha!], but we don’t have to do that in a hurry”. It’s nice to be vindicated. But now what? Read more →
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