Stargazer Asset Management Weekly – October 25 2021

This week we look at inflation, rates, and some FX trades.

BY ERIC FILL

SAM Weekly _ October 25 2021

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Signals vs Omens – Sept 6

BY JON WEBB

Call me superstitious, but some irrational part of me can’t help but think the disappointment surrounding the Nvidia results had wider significance. Like Mary Poppins leaving when the wind changes, sometimes it’s something mundane which, with the benefit of hindsight, signals a shift in sentiment. It’s not that Nvidia never disappoints, but it has come to feel like that recently. And since the Nvidia results, stocks do seem to have lost their mojo, in marked contrast to bonds. Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – September 2024

BY JON WEBB

We are firmly in the 50bp rate cut camp – if the Fed is worried about employment, they need to get ahead of the curve. This is likely to put further pressure on the USD in the near term. USDJPY has hit its downside target (see below) so the benefit is more likely to accrue to the EUR and GBP. We also see the BoJ on hold this week, which adds weight to this view. However, we note our systematic models still point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness over time, so any bounce may prove a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges. Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide – Lessons Learned

BY JON WEBB

If the saying is that we’re always fighting the last war, Chair Powell and his Fed comrades appear to be shellshocked. Not so long ago, when asked about where the FOMC’s collective thinking was, Mr Powell went with the rather cumbersome formulation “not thinking about thinking about” rate hikes. This time around, when asked about the various ins and outs of potential rate cuts, Powell said point blank that “the next question… is when it will become appropriate to begin dialing back the amount of policy restraint that’s in place… that’s really the next question, and that’s what people are thinking about and talking about”. Read more →

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