Other posts

Multiple Data Points to Go Before a Santa Claus Rally

BY TEMATICA
The Fed's next meeting, updated economic projections, Retail Sales and more Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Particularly Fluid

BY JON WEBB
Now a week out from the Fed making it clear that the squeeze of lower growth isn’t worth the juice of bringing inflation back to (not toward, Jerry!) 2%, Mohamed El-Erian summed up the state of play nicely in a recent article for the FT. The Queens’ College president noted that, “It is not often that you see a reputable central bank revise up its inflation and growth projections and yet strengthen a dovish tilt to its policy stance. Yet that is what happened in Washington last week when the Federal Reserve raised those projections up a notch and yet delivered two consequential signals – a willingness to tolerate higher inflation for longer and an openness to slow the ongoing reduction in its balance sheet.” Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – September 2024

BY JON WEBB
We are firmly in the 50bp rate cut camp – if  the Fed is worried about employment, they need to get ahead of the curve.  This is likely to put further pressure on the USD in the near term.  USDJPY has hit its downside target (see below) so the benefit is more likely to accrue to the EUR and GBP.  We also see the BoJ on hold this week, which adds weight to this view.  However, we note our systematic models still point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness over time, so any bounce may prove a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges.  Read more →
Back to all posts →