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Thoughts From The Divide: If Then

BY JON WEBB
With another “most important Fed meeting of our lifetime” squarely in the rearview, and the first round of knee-jerk market moves pass to the side mirrors, it’s worth reflecting a little on the Fed Chair Powell’s “works”. The “biggest” move was the announced tapering of treasuries QT to roughly $25b from the previous rate of $60b of run off a month, but beyond that Fed confidence was conspicuous by its absence. The Chairman stated as much, admitting that “the data have not given us that greater confidence” that inflation was moving toward the 2% goal that Powell indicated necessary (how long is a piece of string?) for cuts. Read more →

MI2 Partners: Thoughts From The Divide: Move Fast and Break Things

BY JON WEBB
We suspect many of our readers may have a passing familiarity with the work of Olivia Rodrigo. That’s not because we are popular with her fan base, but rather because we suspect many of our readers may live in close proximity to teenage girls. That’s certainly the case for TFTD, and yours truly was struck by how well the talented Ms. Rodrigo seemed to understand the problems of both pubescent girls dealing with first love, and senior WH officials as they deal with the collateral damage associated with their policies. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Hold On Tight

BY JON WEBB
“It’s obvious that there’s going to be stress and losses”. The comment is from Janet Yellen’s comments this week and comes from the discussion of the ongoing CRE dumpster fire. Stress and losses aside, the Treasury Secretary was unruffled, following up with the comment, “I hope and believe that this will not end up being a systemic risk to the banking system.” Yellen did admit that size matters. While “The exposure of the largest banks is quite low,… there may be smaller banks that are stressed by these developments” Read more →
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