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C8 Currency Compass – USD Correction – January 2025

BY JON WEBB
Our FX models for USD against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and  NOK, which were largely USD positive last year, reversed in January.  In particular, our reversion models are suggesting some strength in these currencies against USD in the near term.  Nevertheless, the continued outperformance of the US economy, alongside sluggish growth in Europe, suggests that any USD reversal will not be sustained. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Little Tweaks and Adjustments

BY JON WEBB
“I actually think we’re going to see inflation be choppy, and I expect that we’ll see employment stay robust.” As we noted back in May, “one swallow does not make spring”. But if we are to follow the advice of Keynes/Samuelson, when information changes, we should adjust our conclusions. Blast! The trick is, of course, balancing the two ideas to adjust conclusions when the evidence suggests such an adjustment is appropriate: you might call it Bayesian inference. The above quote from Bostic illustrates the problem, with the Atlanta Fed head implicitly stating that he will be ignoring any hot inflation prints. Read more →

Putin Renews Geopolitical Tension, Walmart Earnings

BY TEMATICA
The S&P 500 Outlook - Bank of America vs. Goldman Sachs Read more →
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