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January 27: The Week Ahead

BY TEMATICA
DeepSeek Rattles AI, The Fed, Looming Trump Tariffs Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: A Giant Global Margin Call

BY JON WEBB
It’s possible to read too much into things. Consider it a flaw in our nature. But when we are told the “Worst of market sell-off might be over but hold on tight”, we can’t help but wonder about the hedged language. After all, if Goldman sees recent price action as prompted by a “giant global margin call”, surely the sell-off is an opportunity? Apparently not, as the GS note in question suggested that the flows they have seen were not consistent with “a ton of selling”. Is this diagnostically useful, and if so, in what way? If forced to offer an opinion (and we are), we would agree with GS that volumes have certainly not been indicative of capitulation. In fact, recent volatility might be better thought of as evidence of preternaturally low levels of liquidity. That in itself begs the question of why liquidity is so poor. August doldrums, or evidence of a Potemkin market? Read more →

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Who Blinked First?

BY JON WEBB
Some might think it academic, but we can’t help being curious about who blinked first. There are at least two games of chicken we have been closely watching. Clearly, everyone is watching the game of chicken between Xi and Trump. However, the casual observer might think there was also one involving Powell and Trump. In the case of Xi, its not entirely clear who blinked first. Read more →
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