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Thoughts From The Divide: The Door is Wide Open

BY JON WEBB
Last week, we flagged Bill Dudley’s abrupt change of mind: he now advocates immediate rate cuts. One might be forgiven for suspecting Bill had spent the week lobbying his old colleagues because the July 31st FOMC statement, and J Powell’s subsequent presser gave rates markets quite the boost. Of course, there were the usual Powell caveats: “If we were to see, for example, inflation moving down quickly - or more or less in line with expectations - growth remains reasonably strong, and the labor market remains consistent with its current condition, then I would think that a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting”. But judging from SOFR pricing, the market took Powell’s caveats as mere teasing. Powell’s presser comments suggested maybe 50bps of cuts by year-end, but Dec 25 SOFR pricing suggests at least 75bps. Read more →

C8 Weekly Bulletin: The ExtractAlpha advantage

BY ROBERT MINIKIN
This week’s Bulletin is guest edited by one of C8's index contributors – ExtractAlpha. Their Smart Earnings Index leverages their proprietary US earnings and revenue forecasts - which both consistently outperform the Wall Street consensus. The Index is a highly liquid strategy favouring large cap stocks and has delivered an annual return roughly 40% higher than that of the S&P500 over the past decade - and with similar volatility. Read more →

Whither US Treasuries?

BY JON WEBB
US growth dynamics remain stronger than many expected. The Federal Reserve seem hell bent on cutting rates but are getting cold comfort from recent data releases, however they attempt to spin it. Recent “off-message” comments from Fed officials underline that risk. If we continue in this vein, expect US rates to ratchet higher and bonds to remain vulnerable. Read more →
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