Thoughts From The Divide: An Inevitable Recession? –Surprise! (An Interview)

In lieu of this week’s Thoughts From The Divide newsletter, we’re thrilled to share Julian Brigden’s recent chat with Blockworks’ Felix Jauvin. So, what’s on the docket? Well, we dive headfirst into the market’s somewhat naive hope that central banks will start slashing rates like they're on a budget cut spree. Spoiler alert: historical trends suggest that rate adjustments are rarely as swift or predictable as we'd all like. Those tightening cycles? They’re like that unpredictable friend who shows up late and drunk—potentially disastrous. Next up, we take a magnifying glass to those overly rosy 2025 pricing forecasts. Turns out, the market's optimism might be a tad misplaced. We break down the difference between disinflation that’s deliberately crafted and the kind that just happens because, well, life. Either way, it’s a wild ride with plenty of risks to consider.
BY JON WEBB

  • Posted on July 25, 2024
  • by MI2 Research

We’re thrilled to share Julian Brigden’s recent chat with Blockworks’ Felix Jauvin.

So, what’s on the docket? Well, we dive headfirst into the market’s somewhat naive hope that central banks will start slashing rates like they’re on a budget cut spree. Spoiler alert: historical trends suggest that rate adjustments are rarely as swift or predictable as we’d all like. Those tightening cycles? They’re like that unpredictable friend who shows up late and drunk—potentially disastrous.

Next up, we take a magnifying glass to those overly rosy 2025 pricing forecasts. Turns out, the market’s optimism might be a tad misplaced. We break down the difference between disinflation that’s deliberately crafted and the kind that just happens because, well, life. Either way, it’s a wild ride with plenty of risks to consider.

Oh, and let’s not forget the looming threat of a recession—because who doesn’t love a good dose of economic drama? Central banks are juggling inflation and growth like circus performers, while shifts in corporate pricing could keep inflation alive and kicking.

As for asset ownership, brace yourselves. We’re calling out the potential for a market correction that could hit every asset class. Our advice? Keep your wits about you, set tight stops on investments, and stash some cash. Think of it as your financial safety net for when the market decides to throw a tantrum.

Enjoy the interview!

{VIDEO} https://mi2partners.com/blockworks-on-the-margin-an-inevitable-recession-why-the-soft-landing-is-a-myth/

Other posts

C8 Weekly; China Liberalisation Coincides with C8 China Futures Access Launch

BY ROBERT MINIKIN
Over the month since our C8 Weekly Bulletin highlighted early signs of an opening up of the Chinese economy, the liberalisation steps have gathered new momentum. Against this backdrop, the timing may be propitious for Cirdan Capital's launch today of the C8 China Futures Access certificate. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Natural Disasters?

BY JON WEBB
One might have expected yesterday’s CPI data to be of significance for asset prices. As it happened the figures were interesting, with the inflation data surprising to the high side: marginally, but still a miss, while core CPI actually increased for the 2nd month. Hardly proof of resurgent inflation but notable in the context of a series which has been trending lower since Sep 2022. But asset prices didn’t seem to notice the miss. Perhaps that’s because policymakers hardly noticed it either. The quote above came from the NY Fed Williams yesterday, and seems to be representative of policymakers’ focus shifting from inflation to the labor market. So perhaps markets took that cue and paid more attention to the rather striking weekly claims figure (258k). Read more →

C8 Bulletin: Gauging the Impact of US Debt Limit Dynamics – Part II

BY JON WEBB
In February, one of our index providers, IVI Capital, outlined how the Debt Ceiling impasse would lead to an expansion of US liquidity, and more benign financial markets, until the Congressional stand-off was resolved. With the Debt Ceiling increase finally agreed, we asked IVI for an update. Read more →
Back to all posts →