C8/GreenBlue Good Governance US Equity L/S Certificate – October 2021

The ‘Good Governance’ certificate recovered some of last month’s losses in October, rising by 0.7%, as commodity markets stabilised, and in some cases, reversed their recent sharp gains.  High energy prices and post-Covid supply chain issues remain however, but, as we have previously expressed, we believe that the ‘Good Governance’ premia can perform well as these influences diminish over time.
BY JON WEBB

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Thoughts From The Divide: A Giant Global Margin Call

BY JON WEBB
It’s possible to read too much into things. Consider it a flaw in our nature. But when we are told the “Worst of market sell-off might be over but hold on tight”, we can’t help but wonder about the hedged language. After all, if Goldman sees recent price action as prompted by a “giant global margin call”, surely the sell-off is an opportunity? Apparently not, as the GS note in question suggested that the flows they have seen were not consistent with “a ton of selling”. Is this diagnostically useful, and if so, in what way? If forced to offer an opinion (and we are), we would agree with GS that volumes have certainly not been indicative of capitulation. In fact, recent volatility might be better thought of as evidence of preternaturally low levels of liquidity. That in itself begs the question of why liquidity is so poor. August doldrums, or evidence of a Potemkin market? Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Right Time to Strike

BY JON WEBB
The saying is that one should wait until you see the whites of the enemy’s eyes before firing, but are there times when it’s worth waiting until you feel their breath? Case in point, the “whites” (losses) are certainly visible now in real estate debt, as we’ve highlighted in these pages, with the obvious consequences for owners of real estate debt. The latest data from the FDIC served to further highlight the obvious, warning that there are “63 ‘problem banks’ and $517 billion in unrealized losses” courtesy of higher rates hurting bank holdings of fixed income. Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy March 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →
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