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C8 Hedge – Currency Compass – Manage Currency Balances with C8 Hedge – June 2025

BY JON WEBB
All corporates and asset managers hold cash balances, to cover upcoming outgoings and, in reserve, an excess balance, for example, in case of fund redemption.  A corporate or asset manager will build excess balances as they randomly accrue in various currency accounts, we propose managing these cash balances in a more systematic way. As regular readers will know, C8 Hedge is designed to add value to the FX hedging process by modelling key drivers of FX markets: fundamental, trend, carry and value.  Importantly, these key drivers can be just as easily used to optimise cash balances. Hold excess cash in currencies that are likely to appreciate on a total return basis (combining spot movement and interest carry). Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy March 2025 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

BY JON WEBB
Now that the “giant global margin call” appears to have run its course, global equity markets were free to celebrate successfully navigating the potential banana skin that was US inflation data (both CPI and PPI). Inflation is tamed (at least till next month) with only the irritating exception of the shelter components (again!) and those pesky insurance premiums. Turns out that inflation has a long tail: higher auto prices beget higher insurance premiums, and that’s without considering the impact of recent hail storms. That said perhaps we should count our blessings. Both headline CPI and PPI beat (i.e., were lower than) the consensus by 0.1%, which led some economists to point to a core PCE deflator figure below the Fed’s 2% target: good enough for stocks to start celebrating a September rate cut. Read more →
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