Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: Finding Reasons

BY JON WEBB
The latest flurry of Fed speak has been a broad recanting of the previously guaranteed, 100% for sure, cuts this year, with members saying, “I definitely don’t feel urgency to cut rates”, “I’m not in a mad dash hurry to get there[, to lower rates]”, and “at some point, … we will start to normalize policy back to a less restrictive stance [ed. Ha!], but we don’t have to do that in a hurry”. It’s nice to be vindicated. But now what? Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy September 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Reversals of Fortune

BY JON WEBB
Last week’s TFTD (“Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold”) referenced Goldilocks to illustrate the tightrope US markets were walking: an economy slow enough to keep bond bulls happy, but not so slow as might spook equity bulls. This week, we continue the bear theme, courtesy of Ernie Tedeschi, and what might be taken as a public service announcement from the BLS, reminding both policymakers and the investing public of the dangers associated with “rear-view mirror driving”. The BLS benchmark revision is usually too wonky to attract press attention. But this is an election year, so naturally the BLS misplacing 818k jobs was an irresistible opportunity for conspiracy theorizing on the platform formerly called “Twitter”. Read more →
Back to all posts →