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Thoughts From The Divide: The Little Things

BY JON WEBB
Following the warnings from Walmart’s earnings last week, Target announced earnings this week and saw its stock walloped. As the CEO noted, “The ‘biggest challenges’ Target is hearing from its shoppers are ‘inflation in food and household essentials’”, further adding that “inflation is putting a ‘strain on the consumer wallet.’” Read more →

Whither US Treasuries?

BY JON WEBB
US growth dynamics remain stronger than many expected. The Federal Reserve seem hell bent on cutting rates but are getting cold comfort from recent data releases, however they attempt to spin it. Recent “off-message” comments from Fed officials underline that risk. If we continue in this vein, expect US rates to ratchet higher and bonds to remain vulnerable. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Right Time to Strike

BY JON WEBB
The saying is that one should wait until you see the whites of the enemy’s eyes before firing, but are there times when it’s worth waiting until you feel their breath? Case in point, the “whites” (losses) are certainly visible now in real estate debt, as we’ve highlighted in these pages, with the obvious consequences for owners of real estate debt. The latest data from the FDIC served to further highlight the obvious, warning that there are “63 ‘problem banks’ and $517 billion in unrealized losses” courtesy of higher rates hurting bank holdings of fixed income. Read more →
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