C8 Weekly Bulletin: Giving Investors an Edge

– IVI Capital Insights

27 September 2022

This week’s Bulletin is being guest edited by one of our newest index providers, IVI Capital, a global macro hedge fund.  Their index is a daily, futures-only strategy.  C8 Studio shows the index up 23.5% so far this year.

Are Fed rate hike expectations realistic?

At IVI Capital, we spent much of 2021 and early 2022 focused on the risks associated with an extremely dovish stance of US monetary policy in the face of continued fiscal expansion. The Fed pre-determined that inflation would be “transitory” but realised in late 2021 that inflation would be both persistent and elevated, driving a hawkish pivot into a rate hiking cycle of unprecedented rapidity. This materially strengthened the dollar, tightening financial conditions both domestically and overseas. Countries that hiked rates early and hard (such as Mexico and Brazil) protected their currencies. Those that did not (Japan, UK, Europe) have seen weakening currencies exacerbating imported inflation costs, especially around energy which worsened after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Fed is expected to hike another 125bps by end 2022, but is this realistic given the outlook of slowing global growth?  One of the many indicators we watch is the US 2 year yield adjusted for inflation (real yields). Since March 2022 when the Fed finally stopped expanding its balance sheet, 2 year US real yields have rallied from -3.0% to +2.1%! The chart below illustrates the strong correlation between the 2 year reals and the Broad Bloomberg Dollar Index which has been the key driver of the risk-reductive tone. This is a breath-taking pace of policy tightening.

EURGBP is now too high

The Fed’s hawkish tone seeks to make amends for the “transitory” error but now risks being “too-tight” as rates enter restrictive territory. The Dollar is extremely overbought on many technical indicators whilst our market conditions’ gauges signal continued volatility across asset classes. For example, the UK’s “Truss unfunded tax cuts” caused a collapse in both GBP currency and bonds accentuated by a cautious BoE which lagged the Fed’s hiking cycle. Now the market has priced in far more aggressive UK tightening exacerbated by “King Dollar”. On a rate differential basis, Sterling is looking extremely cheap against the Euro.

Other posts

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy February 2023 Update

Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →

C8 Bulletin: Gauging the Impact of US Debt Limit Dynamics – Part II

In February, one of our index providers, IVI Capital, outlined how the Debt Ceiling impasse would lead to an expansion of US liquidity, and more benign financial markets, until the Congressional stand-off was resolved. With the Debt Ceiling increase finally agreed, we asked IVI for an update. Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy May 2023 Update

The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →
Back to all posts →