Full strategy commentary: NDRSASDH202101061

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C8 Weekly Bulletin:  Trend-following in Volatile Times – the C8 Way

BY JON WEBB
The first quarter of 2023 has been notable for its skittish financial markets. First, there was optimism that this year would prove calmer than 2022, followed by renewed concern about inflation and the impact of bond holdings in the US banking system. This culminated in the forced takeover of Credit Suisse at the weekend.  Traditional trend-following strategies performed strongly in 2022, but these rapid shifts in sentiment have proved more difficult to navigate. The SocGen CTA index is down 6% year-to-date, and down nearly 10% in the past week.    Here is the good news!  The C8 Global Active Futures index avoided this sell-off and remains up on the year.  Why the difference?  C8's proprietary allocation process selects from a wide range of trend and counter-trend strategies, and is responsive to volatility levels, so adapts more readily to changing market environments. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Identifying Ducks

BY JON WEBB
While we may have missed getting out our Thoughts From The Divide year-in-review piece before the new year (mea maxima culpa), we did manage to spend some time going through our “best of” and “greatest hits” in anticipation of the changing of the calendar. As usual, there were some repeated themes and tropes, but at the highest level, what struck us was that last year seemed very much governed by the timeless question from the underrated philosopher of science, Whitney Houston: “How will I know?” (closely followed by her observation that “crack is whack”) Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Bumps and Jumps

BY JON WEBB
At the risk of sounding like we’re going soft on Jerry and his pirate crew of crack forecasters, one might almost feel bad for the folks at the Eccles building. Despite their manifest belief that current real rates are restrictive, the economic “party goers” seem to be finding it very easy to keep going with the available supplies of punch. The takeaway seems to be that it’s hard to stop a party when fiscal policy keeps adding to the punchbowl. Grannie Yellen seems to love a booze up, followed by a Chinese banquet, and if we were honest, we might admit that’s pretty much been our MO for the last 15 years Read more →
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