Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy January 2025 Update

The Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy entered this month recommending a fully invested position. The NDR Catastrophic Stop model is based on the combination of two proprietary composites: 1) the Internal Composite (technical and price-related indicators) and 2) the External Composite (fundamental, economic, interest rate, and behavioral/sentiment indicators). Each composite is one-half of the overall score.

The sector model maintained mixed leadership this month. Entering January, Financials, Information Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities are above benchmark weight. Real Estate, Materials, Energy, and Consumer Staples are below benchmark weight.

Full strategy commentary: NDRSASDH202501061

Visit the Day Hagan research page for access to additional commentary and webcasts.

Thoughts From the Divide: The First Cut

BY JON WEBB

In love, the first cut may be the deepest (as per Rod Stewart, Sheryl Crow, and others). But for the Fed’s Waller, the first cut is to be done “methodically and carefully”. Tacky musical references aside, the Fed Governor explained in his speech earlier this week that “the data we have received the last few months is allowing the Committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024”. With inflation seemingly on the right path for reaching the FOMC’s “price-stability goal”, Waller was yet another confirmation of the adjustment cut thesis, explaining in his conclusion, “The healthy state of the economy provides the flexibility to lower the (nominal) policy rate to keep the real policy rate at an appropriate level of tightness.” Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy January 2025 Update

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