The Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy entered this month recommending a fully invested allocation. The NDR Catastrophic Stop model is based on the combination of two proprietary composites: 1) the Internal Composite (technical and price-related indicators) and 2) the External Composite (fundamental, economic, interest rate, and behavioral/sentiment indicators). Each composite is one-half of the overall score.

The sector model moved more cyclical during the month. Entering June, the sector model is overweight cyclical Growth sectors such as Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary, as well as Utilities. Industrials moved to marketweight. All other sectors are underweighted with significant drops in allocation to Health Care and Financials.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRSASDH202306061

Visit the Day Hagan research page for access to additional commentary and webcasts.

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BY JON WEBB
Winston Churchill said the above line in a speech delivered in 1940 to the House of Commons, noting in his survey of the war efforts that “The gratitude of every home in our Island… goes out to the British airmen who, undaunted by odds, unwearied in their constant challenge and mortal danger are turning the tide of the world war”. While we don’t want to focus this week on the “psalm of swords” (though we would note Denmark’s government may have broken the first rule of Fight Club in recommending its citizens stock up on water, food, medicine, and iodine tablets!), the British Bulldog’s words are particularly apt at the moment given so much of the economic landscape is dependent on “the vital few”. Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide: When The Facts Change

BY JON WEBB
It has been a big news week. So much so that it’s quite hard to decide which was the biggest story. It’s certainly hard to ignore the announcement that Mr. Biden will not be running for re-election and has endorsed his VP, Kamala Harris. We generally try to avoid offering opinions on politics because a) it is not our day job and b) it’s a surefire way of making half your readers hate you. That said, we do think VP Harris’ exhortation to consider “What can be, unburdened by what has been” is good advice for both investors and policymakers. Read more →

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: Deciding on “Someone”

BY JON WEBB
A little less than two years ago, we noted, with some surprise, that Huw Pill had bucked the usual central bank modus operandi of avoiding unfortunate truths and had instead gone the direct route, telling the UK “we’re all worse off, and we all have to take our share”. Speaking about inflation, the BoE’s Chief Economist clarified that, “If the cost of what you’re buying has gone up compared to what you’re selling, you’re going to be worse off… Read more →
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