The Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy entered this month recommending an allocation to cash. The NDR Catastrophic Stop model is based on the combination of two proprietary composites: 1) the Internal Composite (technical and price-related indicators) and 2) the External Composite (fundamental, economic, interest rate, and behavioral/sentiment indicators). Each composite is one-half of the overall score.

The sector model remained with a mix of cyclical and defensive leadership during the month. Entering November, the sector model is overweight Communication Services, Utilities, Materials, and Industrials. Information Technology dropped to marketweight, while Energy and Real Estate improved to marketweight. Health Care and Financials joined Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples at underweight.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRSASDH202311031

Visit the Day Hagan research page for access to additional commentary and webcasts.

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Thoughts From The Divide: Lack of Action

BY JON WEBB
It’s another week of heavy-hitting inflation data, with PPI coming in hotter than expected, CPI was in line with expectations on a year-on-year basis, and import prices “rose by the most in two years in April amid rising costs for energy products and other goods”. Under the hood, both CPI and import prices showed additional signs of running hot, with the latter featuring an upwardly revised 0.6% month-on-month change in March, and the CPI data, including hot readings in some of the niches and metrics followed by Powell et al., such as the  4.0% annualized reading in six-month Core CPI and a sobering 6.0% annualized reading in six-month Core Services. Read more →

MI2 for C8 – JPY Liftshaft Alert

BY JON WEBB
There is a window emerging for position reduction in the widely held JPY carry trade. Positions are crowded at the same time that the rationale for the extension of the current benign regime is diminishing (carry, carry-to-vol, policy divergence, etc). There is no sense of danger within analyst expectations or embedded in option pricing. While we lack an immediate catalyst, sometimes price can be its own trigger. With USDJPY around 156 and an easily defined stop loss, the risk reward of engaging with JPY strength is compelling. Escalator / liftshaft price action provides significant convexity. Crowded JPY shorts would also need to be covered in the event of a risk-off catalyst coming from other asset classes. Owning USDJPY puts can be an attractive portfolio hedge for investors concerned about general market complacency or for more active tactical FX managers and traders. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Vital Few

BY JON WEBB
Winston Churchill said the above line in a speech delivered in 1940 to the House of Commons, noting in his survey of the war efforts that “The gratitude of every home in our Island… goes out to the British airmen who, undaunted by odds, unwearied in their constant challenge and mortal danger are turning the tide of the world war”. While we don’t want to focus this week on the “psalm of swords” (though we would note Denmark’s government may have broken the first rule of Fight Club in recommending its citizens stock up on water, food, medicine, and iodine tablets!), the British Bulldog’s words are particularly apt at the moment given so much of the economic landscape is dependent on “the vital few”. Read more →
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