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MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: All Time High

BY JON WEBB
All-time highs are often telling macro signals. Is it possible there might be a connection between the recent ATHs in Bitcoin and long JGBs? Some reports pointed to the US credit downgrade and Trump’s tax bill igniting fiscal worries. First of all, no macro trader ever sold a bond because of a credit downgrade and second, given S&P and Fitch had downgraded long before, it’s very hard to think of it as a surprise. Read more →

Reciprocal Trump Tariffs to Trump January PPI Data

BY TEMATICA
January Retail Sales ahead, but why we're interested in the February Flash PMI data Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Right Time to Strike

BY JON WEBB
The saying is that one should wait until you see the whites of the enemy’s eyes before firing, but are there times when it’s worth waiting until you feel their breath? Case in point, the “whites” (losses) are certainly visible now in real estate debt, as we’ve highlighted in these pages, with the obvious consequences for owners of real estate debt. The latest data from the FDIC served to further highlight the obvious, warning that there are “63 ‘problem banks’ and $517 billion in unrealized losses” courtesy of higher rates hurting bank holdings of fixed income. Read more →
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