The Dynamic Allocation Strategy’s equity allocation jumped to over 80%.

Five of the six top-level indicators in the model (relative strength, global equity market upside participation, PMI breadth, Baltic Dry Index and central banks) favor equities over fixed income and cash.

U.S. Large-Caps, U.S. Value, U.S. Small-Caps, and Cash received the largest weightings. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202204041

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Thoughts From the Divide: Attribution

BY JON WEBB
In April of last year, Huw Pill caught flack for saying that Brits “need to accept that they’re worse off”. This was followed by John Authers coming to the defense of the pilloried BoE chief economist. As we wrote, Authers noted that the comments were taken out of context and explained that the BoE’s Chief Economist was describing how “after a few external shocks, inflation becomes a collective action problem” where “ideally everyone would take a share of the hit, and then they can move on. Human nature isn’t like that, and as a result, economics isn’t like that”. Now, roughly a year later, the BoE’s Catherine Mann has picked up Mr. Authers’ baton. It turns out that people who can maintain their standard of living will tend to do just that! Bemoaning the “challenge” of bringing inflation back to target, Mann said there was “a lack of consumer discipline” to rein in businesses’ pricing power, Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: High Times and Happy Endings

BY JON WEBB
“I think it was the right decision, and I think it should send a signal that we, that we’re committed to coming up with a good outcome here” There is no verse in scripture that says “blessed be the dovish, for they shall fatten the sacred bull”. More’s the pity, because it would have been apt. James Macintosh seems to have noticed the same, but framed it slightly differently. Nothing says I love you to asset markets more than Fed rate cuts: the original PCA factor. And to be fair, the admiration appears to be mutual: Powell loves markets and markets love Powell. It’s nice to get positive feedback and it’s not like JP had to drag everyone screaming and kicking. Read more →

Nvidia’s Guidance Weighs on Equity Futures

BY TEMATICA
Today brings another round of Fed speakers and retail earnings. Read more →
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