The Dynamic Allocation Strategy’s equity allocation returned to near benchmark weighting.

Three of the six top-level indicators in the model favor equities over fixed income and cash.

U.S. Small-Caps, U.S. Large-Caps, U.S. Value, and U.S. Investment Grade bonds received the highest allocations. Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRDAS202208021

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TFTD: No Soup for Bond Investors

BY JON WEBB
Equities are clearly happy, a Maybe the idea isnd some commentators tell us it’s because a tariff apocalypse has been averted. In the game of chicken that markets had been following with ill-concealed horror, perhaps the real winner was common sense, although equity investors are a close second. Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy November 2022 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Relatively Speaking

BY JON WEBB
In the second half of last year, as we continued to ponder the ever-impressive strength of the US consumer, we highlighted research on the subject of “excess” saving (which still seems a misnomer), noting JPM’s analysis that saw the consumer that had exhausted the various stimmy payments. Soon after, we discussed research from the San Francisco Fed that argued “a larger fraction of aggregate savings remains in the economy than previously expected”, thanks in part to “a comprehensive data revision”. The piece concluded that those savings would last until “the first half of 2024”. Well, while tomorrow may never truly arrive if free beer is involved (a medical concept?!), the future is now, and the SF Fed has bad news: “Pandemic Savings Are Gone”. As ever with economic research, this comes with a list of caveats, the jist of which are captured in the note accompanying the Fed’s chart below, i.e. savings are gone, relatively speaking. Read more →
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