Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202104061

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NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy April 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – October 2024

BY JON WEBB
A strong start from Currency Compass last month, where we called for a 50bp Fed rate cut camp but noting our currency models point to EURUSD and GBPUSD weakness, so any bounce is a good opportunity to add EUR and GBP hedges.  Indeed it was, with EURUSD hitting 1.12 and GBPUSD 1.34 before falling back.  Stronger US data, in particular the employment report, helped cement this view, the chart below illustrates  how recent US data has pushed up the Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow forecast from 2% to above 3%. Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide:  Tremendous

BY JON WEBB
While there is likely some argument within the Administration as to whether supply chain shocks are both necessary and sufficient or simply necessary (mirrored by the Fed’s own divergence in views), it’s clear that Yellen and the White House are not too concerned about the Philips Curve, nor seem to put stock in John Cochrane’s “fiscal theory of the price level”. After all, Yellen is still quoted as saying that the US is on a responsible fiscal path, despite the deficit (which is, as Mosler notes, the public’s surplus). Or perhaps they think that with some proper cajoling, the greedflation genie can be put back in the bottle (at least temporarily) as CEO’s find a renewed sense of civic virtue and community? We wouldn’t hold our breath. Read more →
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