Entering August, the fixed income allocation strategy has a risk-on message. The model is overweight U.S. High-Yield Bonds, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, Floating Rate Notes, and Emerging Market Bonds and underweight U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202308031

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Thoughts From The Divide: Reversals of Fortune

BY JON WEBB
Last week’s TFTD (“Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold”) referenced Goldilocks to illustrate the tightrope US markets were walking: an economy slow enough to keep bond bulls happy, but not so slow as might spook equity bulls. This week, we continue the bear theme, courtesy of Ernie Tedeschi, and what might be taken as a public service announcement from the BLS, reminding both policymakers and the investing public of the dangers associated with “rear-view mirror driving”. The BLS benchmark revision is usually too wonky to attract press attention. But this is an election year, so naturally the BLS misplacing 818k jobs was an irresistible opportunity for conspiracy theorizing on the platform formerly called “Twitter”. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Natural Disasters?

BY JON WEBB
One might have expected yesterday’s CPI data to be of significance for asset prices. As it happened the figures were interesting, with the inflation data surprising to the high side: marginally, but still a miss, while core CPI actually increased for the 2nd month. Hardly proof of resurgent inflation but notable in the context of a series which has been trending lower since Sep 2022. But asset prices didn’t seem to notice the miss. Perhaps that’s because policymakers hardly noticed it either. The quote above came from the NY Fed Williams yesterday, and seems to be representative of policymakers’ focus shifting from inflation to the labor market. So perhaps markets took that cue and paid more attention to the rather striking weekly claims figure (258k). Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy October 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →
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