Entering August, the fixed income allocation strategy’s positioning stayed the same. U.S. High Yield, U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are above benchmark weight. Emerging Market bonds, International Investment Grade, and U.S. Floating Rate Notes are below benchmark weight.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202408051

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Thoughts From The Divide: Signs of Life

BY JON WEBB
For those of us who regularly follow the “wonksphere” on social media, it’s been hard to ignore the pushback against the doom and gloom that economic sentiment surveys have consistently reported. Commentators like Stancil and Sahm have bitterly complained about the disconnect between the public’s negative perceptions relative to the hard economic data, which is ostensibly pretty good. In this, they have been carrying water for policymakers like Lael Brainard, who have attempted to burnish the Administration’s economic achievements to push back against the negative perception of the economy. The most obvious of those achievements is the decline in inflation – see, we told you it was transitory! Read more →

USDJPY and Gamma Trading (29th July 2024)

BY JON WEBB
In our piece in February (Turning Japanese, Feb 2024) we discussed how carry trades in currencies have a predisposition to trade an “escalator / liftshaft” pattern. The Japanese Yen, as the principal funding currency, is particularly vulnerable to violent reversals to what has been a remarkably steady and successful carry trade. In the last couple of weeks, as analysts started to consider the possibility of a BoJ rate hike at their meeting on 31st July, JPY crosses exhibited a bout of significant strength. USDJPY fell around 10 big figures from ~162 to 152. Is that enough to have cleared the decks? Simply put, it is not possible to clear out two years of accumulated positions in a couple of weeks. The fact that CFTC commitment of trader positioning was showing JPY shorts at their most extended since 2007 (pre GFC) before last week’s sharpish position reduction, suggests this is merely a shot across the bows, so far. Japanese retail traders (Mrs Watanabe) have slowed accumulation to a stand still but wholesale flight is far from evident. Read more →

NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy March 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update Read more →
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