NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy July 2021 Update

The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
BY BRIAN SANBORN

The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy entered the month with increased allocations to U.S. Treasurys and U.S. Investment Grade. U.S. Long-Term Treasurys’ is now significantly above benchmark. The sector’s trend has improved, economic conditions are reversing from favorable levels, and the yield curve has narrowed from recent highs. The momentum of the U.S. stock market is no longer as strong as in previous months, which is less of a headwind for Treasurys. All these indicator changes are bullish for the sector.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202107071

Other posts

Thoughts From the Divide: Avoiding the Inverse

BY JON WEBB
Along with the release of the January Fed minutes this week, there was a deluge of Fed Speak, with Jefferson, Harker, Waller, and Cook all opining on the outlook for cuts. Most of the refrain was along the lines of Powell’s need for “confidence”, with Waller saying that he needed “to see at least another couple more months of inflation data” and Cook echoing the idea, saying that “as we gain greater confidence that disinflation is ongoing and sustainable, that changing outlook will warrant a change in the policy rate”. Harker pushed back on immediate cuts, asking for markets to “just give us a couple of meetings”, following up by saying, “I would caution anyone from looking for it right now and right away”. But while there may be some pushback on timing, that cuts are coming appears to be very much fait accompli in the mind of the Fed. Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy July 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: The Harvest

BY JON WEBB
Even in times of turmoil (see President Lincoln’s Thanksgiving Day Proclamation), fall is a time to give thanks. And what should we be more thankful for than the gift of shopping? Retail sales reflected “continued resilience in the American consumer” and one might think recent Fed surveys are indicative of a new sense of optimism? The Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey’s headline index “shot up forty-three points to 31.2, its highest reading in nearly three years, and the six-month outlook showed that “firms remained optimistic about future conditions”. The Philadelphia Fed survey was not quite as ebullient in its reading of the current environment, the headline index dropping from 10.3 to -5.5 (a section headline drily noting “Most Current Indicators Soften”), but, on balance, the sense of optimism was palpable and mirrored the Empire Fed, (“Most Future Indicators Rise”) with the future activity jumping “from 36.7 to 56.6 in November, its highest level since June 2021”. Read more →
Back to all posts →