The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy entered the month with elevated allocations to U.S. Treasurys and U.S. Investment Grade. U.S. Long-Term Treasurys’ is significantly above benchmark. Only one of the sector’s price-based (internal) and macro, fundamental, and behavioral (external) indicators is bearish. The U.S. Investment Grade Corporate bond sector’s allocation continues to be overweight.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202111031

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Thoughts From the Divide:  Subjest to Change

BY JON WEBB
As the saying goes, “needs must when the devil drives”. We have no problem understanding the Fed’s decision to announce (at 7pm last night) that the details of the BTFP program needed to be altered. The problem was the overly juicy arbitrage, whereby banks could use the BTFP window to flip cash from the Fed into the RRP and pocket the not-insubstantial difference. We were impressed by the chutzpah involved in arbitraging two Fed facilities! Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Hold On Tight

BY JON WEBB
“It’s obvious that there’s going to be stress and losses”. The comment is from Janet Yellen’s comments this week and comes from the discussion of the ongoing CRE dumpster fire. Stress and losses aside, the Treasury Secretary was unruffled, following up with the comment, “I hope and believe that this will not end up being a systemic risk to the banking system.” Yellen did admit that size matters. While “The exposure of the largest banks is quite low,… there may be smaller banks that are stressed by these developments” Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide: Pandora’s Box

BY JON WEBB
While the Whitehouse may have successfully avoided putting its foot in its mouth on inflation this year (We hope everyone stateside had a good Independence day), the topic remains at top of mind for more than just the bean counters, as policymakers and consumers alike grapple with a new version of Whitney Houston’s question, “How will I know if inflation is over?”. The last few weeks haven’t offered very clear guidance. CPI was cooler than expected, but PPI was above expectations. Both the ISM Manufacturing and Services reports saw strong price readings, but there were other signs of a retreat in demand. Read more →
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