The fixed income allocation strategy made several changes this past month. Entering November, Emerging Market bonds, U.S. Floating Rate Notes, U.S. High Yield, and International Investment Grade are above benchmark weight. U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are below benchmark weight.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202411051

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Thoughts From The Divide: Relatively Speaking

BY JON WEBB
In the second half of last year, as we continued to ponder the ever-impressive strength of the US consumer, we highlighted research on the subject of “excess” saving (which still seems a misnomer), noting JPM’s analysis that saw the consumer that had exhausted the various stimmy payments. Soon after, we discussed research from the San Francisco Fed that argued “a larger fraction of aggregate savings remains in the economy than previously expected”, thanks in part to “a comprehensive data revision”. The piece concluded that those savings would last until “the first half of 2024”. Well, while tomorrow may never truly arrive if free beer is involved (a medical concept?!), the future is now, and the SF Fed has bad news: “Pandemic Savings Are Gone”. As ever with economic research, this comes with a list of caveats, the jist of which are captured in the note accompanying the Fed’s chart below, i.e. savings are gone, relatively speaking. Read more →

MI2 Partners Thoughts From The Divide: “An offshore appropriation”

BY JON WEBB
Last week (“TFTD: Personnel is Policy”), we discussed whether the Trump administration was looking to correct the unforced error of Trump’s first term by focusing on placing Trump sympathizers in as many key public sector positions as possible. With this in mind, the appointment of EJ Antoni to the BLS is instructive, because of Antoni’s association with the Heritage Foundation. “Within hours of Trump’s announcement, economists from across the political spectrum were questioning whether the nominee’s résumé, record, and recent remarks pointed to a commitment to the data — or to the person who appointed him.”  Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy March 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →
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