Entering October, the fixed income allocation strategy rebalanced and favored mixed leadership. The model is overweight U.S. Floating Rate Notes, International Investment Grade, and U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. U.S. High Yield and Emerging Market bonds were downgraded to marketweight. The model is underweight U.S. Investment Grade Corporate, U.S. Long-Term Treasurys, and U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities.

Click the link below to read more about the strategy’s positioning.

Full strategy commentary: NDRFIAS202310041

Other posts

Thoughts From The Divide: A Giant Global Margin Call

BY JON WEBB
It’s possible to read too much into things. Consider it a flaw in our nature. But when we are told the “Worst of market sell-off might be over but hold on tight”, we can’t help but wonder about the hedged language. After all, if Goldman sees recent price action as prompted by a “giant global margin call”, surely the sell-off is an opportunity? Apparently not, as the GS note in question suggested that the flows they have seen were not consistent with “a ton of selling”. Is this diagnostically useful, and if so, in what way? If forced to offer an opinion (and we are), we would agree with GS that volumes have certainly not been indicative of capitulation. In fact, recent volatility might be better thought of as evidence of preternaturally low levels of liquidity. That in itself begs the question of why liquidity is so poor. August doldrums, or evidence of a Potemkin market? Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy November 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →

C8 Currency Compass – USD Correction – January 2025

BY JON WEBB
Our FX models for USD against EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and  NOK, which were largely USD positive last year, reversed in January.  In particular, our reversion models are suggesting some strength in these currencies against USD in the near term.  Nevertheless, the continued outperformance of the US economy, alongside sluggish growth in Europe, suggests that any USD reversal will not be sustained. Read more →
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