Stargazer Asset Management – Global Macro Overview – 13 January 2020

What to focus on in Global Macro for the week of January 13th, 2020
BY JON WEBB

What to focus on in Global Macro for the week of January 13th, 2020

Macro Themes on the Radar:

USD – Does the dollar rally and tighten Global Financial Conditions, or does it fall and bring EM,
Commodity and Foreign markets to life; potentially supporting a virtuous cycle for global growth?

US Leading Indicators – Do they continue to hold up as they have? The LEI, which I covered last
week, is one to watch for sure. So are some of the components, such as Claims for Unemployment
Insurance. Initial Claims have bounced around recently but so far have remained well contained.
However, last week saw a bump up in Continuing Claims that, if maintained, leaves us with a
dangerous setup. A set-up that in the past has heralded a turn for the worse in employment.

The ECRI Leading Index, on the other hand, is now perking up. Will it be gloom or boom?

Continue reading at:

Spyglass Macro Advisory _ Weekly 01132020

Other posts

C8 Weekly Bulletin:  Trend-following in Volatile Times – the C8 Way

BY JON WEBB
The first quarter of 2023 has been notable for its skittish financial markets. First, there was optimism that this year would prove calmer than 2022, followed by renewed concern about inflation and the impact of bond holdings in the US banking system. This culminated in the forced takeover of Credit Suisse at the weekend.  Traditional trend-following strategies performed strongly in 2022, but these rapid shifts in sentiment have proved more difficult to navigate. The SocGen CTA index is down 6% year-to-date, and down nearly 10% in the past week.    Here is the good news!  The C8 Global Active Futures index avoided this sell-off and remains up on the year.  Why the difference?  C8's proprietary allocation process selects from a wide range of trend and counter-trend strategies, and is responsive to volatility levels, so adapts more readily to changing market environments. Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy December 2022 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Relatively Speaking

BY JON WEBB
In the second half of last year, as we continued to ponder the ever-impressive strength of the US consumer, we highlighted research on the subject of “excess” saving (which still seems a misnomer), noting JPM’s analysis that saw the consumer that had exhausted the various stimmy payments. Soon after, we discussed research from the San Francisco Fed that argued “a larger fraction of aggregate savings remains in the economy than previously expected”, thanks in part to “a comprehensive data revision”. The piece concluded that those savings would last until “the first half of 2024”. Well, while tomorrow may never truly arrive if free beer is involved (a medical concept?!), the future is now, and the SF Fed has bad news: “Pandemic Savings Are Gone”. As ever with economic research, this comes with a list of caveats, the jist of which are captured in the note accompanying the Fed’s chart below, i.e. savings are gone, relatively speaking. Read more →
Back to all posts →