What to focus on in Global Macro for the week of January 13th, 2020

Macro Themes on the Radar:

USD – Does the dollar rally and tighten Global Financial Conditions, or does it fall and bring EM,
Commodity and Foreign markets to life; potentially supporting a virtuous cycle for global growth?

US Leading Indicators – Do they continue to hold up as they have? The LEI, which I covered last
week, is one to watch for sure. So are some of the components, such as Claims for Unemployment
Insurance. Initial Claims have bounced around recently but so far have remained well contained.
However, last week saw a bump up in Continuing Claims that, if maintained, leaves us with a
dangerous setup. A set-up that in the past has heralded a turn for the worse in employment.

The ECRI Leading Index, on the other hand, is now perking up. Will it be gloom or boom?

Continue reading at:

Spyglass Macro Advisory _ Weekly 01132020

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