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C8 Currency Compass – USD Correction II – February 2025

BY JON WEBB
Our FX systems started the year with ashort USD bias (against the general consensus for a stronger USD). For the first three weeks this bias worked well as fears of blanket US tariffs did not materialize, however, in the final week of January, tariffs were announced on Mexico, Canada and China leading to some renewed USD strength. Nevertheless, so far, the measures that have been taken (with some already suspended for now) have not been as bad as feared. Looking forward to this month, we note the signals are more mixed for the USD though our hedge ratios remain negative USD for the largest currencies: EUR, GBP and JPY. Read more →

Day Hagan/NDR Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop Strategy March 2023 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Day Hagan/Ned Davis Research Smart Sector® with Catastrophic Stop strategy, model and allocations update. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Tricks

BY JON WEBB
Perhaps it’s just us, but as the spooky season returns and jack-o-lanterns bedeck porches, we notice that markets and commentators also seem a bit skittish. Maybe it’s the looming election, or perhaps the geopolitical horror shows, but folk seem surprisingly easy to spook. Case in point was the hullabaloo around the $44bn jump in US (government) debt. The hue and cry of folk such as ZeroHedge were enough to get more mainstream interest, including the owner of X and a son of FP Trump, to take notice. The jump is seasonal, as Constan and others pointed out, rather than some ghoulish trick, but of course it’s easy to make fun of those who took fright. But perhaps this misses the point about horror movies. Some argue that the genre works for some because it allows them to push their boundaries and learn the limits of their fears. If that describes you, we recommend reading the CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook. For others, referred to as “dark copers”, the appeal of horror movies might lie in “anxiety or fear that they’re feeling in their life, and they use scary genres like horror to kind of work through those feelings”. Read more →
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