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NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy December 2024 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →

C8 Hedge – Currency Compass – Election Special – November 2024

BY JON WEBB
The strong USD bias worked well for our FX models last month, with our dynamic hedge adding over 1% outperformance for EURUSD and GBPUSD, and over 3% for USDJPY.  We note, however, that our models have now moved to neutral for the USD against the EUR and GBP, though still look for higher USDJPY.  Reducing FX risk may well be sensible given the closeness of the US Presidential election, and doubts about the accuracy of polls. Though, as we note overleaf, late momentum now marginally favours Harris. Read more →

Thoughts From the Divide – Lessons Learned

BY JON WEBB
If the saying is that we’re always fighting the last war, Chair Powell and his Fed comrades appear to be shellshocked. Not so long ago, when asked about where the FOMC’s collective thinking was, Mr Powell went with the rather cumbersome formulation “not thinking about thinking about” rate hikes. This time around, when asked about the various ins and outs of potential rate cuts, Powell said point blank that “the next question… is when it will become appropriate to begin dialing back the amount of policy restraint that’s in place… that’s really the next question, and that’s what people are thinking about and talking about”. Read more →
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