This week we look at what has been driving markets and the precarious position that countries with low growth now find themselves in. Coronavirus will take a bigger bite out of global growth than is priced. Implied volatility is still cheap across asset classes.
BY ERIC FILL
SAM Weekly Update – Markets have only had eyes for growth and the avoidance of negative yields. Volatility to follow.
The Fed's monetary policy meeting, November Retail Sales, Nike and Micron earnings
Read more →
NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy December 2024 Update
BY BRIAN SANBORN
The NDR Fixed Income Allocation Strategy, Positioning Update
Read more →
Thoughts From The Divide: Little Tweaks and Adjustments
BY JON WEBB
“I actually think we’re going to see inflation be choppy, and I expect that we’ll see employment stay robust.” As we noted back in May, “one swallow does not make spring”. But if we are to follow the advice of Keynes/Samuelson, when information changes, we should adjust our conclusions. Blast! The trick is, of course, balancing the two ideas to adjust conclusions when the evidence suggests such an adjustment is appropriate: you might call it Bayesian inference. The above quote from Bostic illustrates the problem, with the Atlanta Fed head implicitly stating that he will be ignoring any hot inflation prints.
Read more →