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Thoughts From the Divide:  Subjest to Change

BY JON WEBB
As the saying goes, “needs must when the devil drives”. We have no problem understanding the Fed’s decision to announce (at 7pm last night) that the details of the BTFP program needed to be altered. The problem was the overly juicy arbitrage, whereby banks could use the BTFP window to flip cash from the Fed into the RRP and pocket the not-insubstantial difference. We were impressed by the chutzpah involved in arbitraging two Fed facilities! Read more →

C8 Weekly Bulletin:  Backing Value over Defensive – NDR’s Smart Sector

BY JON WEBB
January’s 6.2% advance in the US S&P500 index was far from uniform with sector performances stretching from a 15% gain in consumer discretionary to a 2% retreat in utilities. Given the importance of sectoral positioning  - alongside overall market-directional bets - this week we give the opportunity to our index provider, Ned David Research, to outline the big calls from its 'Dan Hagen/ NDR Smart Sector with Catastrophic Stop' strategy. Read more →

Thoughts From The Divide: Disappointment

BY JON WEBB
The Nvidia results were eagerly awaited. This was entirely natural as Nvidia’s performance accounts for about 1/3 of the YtD gains on the S&P500.  However, the results were not well received, which might be considered puzzling given Nvidia’s quarterly numbers met or beat analysts’ estimates on nearly every measure. The problem was not the numbers but what was expected: the “whisper” number. Nvidia investors have grown accustomed to blowout quarters, and these latest numbers were not blowouts. Read more →
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