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Thoughts From the Divide: The (Golden) Path

BY JON WEBB
While the road to hell is paved with good intentions, it appears that the “golden path” to a soft landing (which by way of reminder is a “triumph of hope over experience”, if you ask Mr. Summers) is paved with rate cuts. In an interview earlier this week, the Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee cast another vote in favor of “adjustment cuts”, saying that “You risk the golden path if you are going to be as restrictive as we are now”. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell was quick to assure the audience during his latest interview that “today I am not going to be sending any signals, one way or the other on any particular meeting” as far as rate cuts are concerned. However, that did not prevent the Chair from referring to ol’ reliable of monetary policy, “long and variable lags”, to explain why, “if you wait until inflation gets all the way down to 2%, you’ve probably waited too long”. Read more →

C8 Weekly Bulletin: The asset class ‘du jour’ – corporate bonds!

BY JON WEBB
The latest Financial Times opinion piece 'The Long View' flags investor interest in an exciting new asset class – not crypto, not AI-driven stocks… but newly higher-yielding corporate bonds! January data on ETF inflows certainly underlined the revived US investor appetite for fixed income with overall inflows running slightly of those into equities. Amid this constructive backdrop, USD and EUR corporate bond markets begin 2023 on a robust note.  Read more →

NDR Dynamic Allocation Strategy November 2022 Update

BY BRIAN SANBORN
Dynamic Allocation Strategy, indicators, weightings update Read more →
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